Australian Derby Preview and Tips 05/04/25

Day One of The Championships has arrived at Randwick Racecourse. We have a mammoth amount of Group One races to feast on, plus the always intriguing Country Championships Final. We have races like the Australian Derby, the Doncaster Mile, the TJ Smith Stakes and the Inglis Sires Produce Stakes.

For the 2025 Australian Derby, we see a massive field of 18, plus a stack of emergencies as well. So far, we have seen Red Aces scratched, as well as the second emergency, Deal N’ Dash. According to PlayUp, it’s a two-horse race with Aeliana and Willydoit both paying under $4.00 to claim the win.

We all know just how big of a day of racing we are treated to, so make sure you sort yourself out with all my Saturday tips here at OnlyRacing. I’ve got tips for all the key races today, including the always thrilling Australian Derby. So, what are you waiting for? Keep reading to see my best bets for the Australian Derby!

Looks to be a moderate tempo for the 2025 Australian Derby, with only Format possessing the fast barrier speed. It’s a big field so I would expect the jockeys to feel out their positions in the opening stages before being able to get into a groove in the middle and closing stages of the race.

Aeliana, the current favourite when PlayUp, has a few options from barrier two and I think she’ll settle in near the rear of the field, looking to stay out of trouble and using all her closing speed to try and run them all down in the closing stages. One of the other main chances, Willydoit, jumps from barrier 10 and will probably settle in the middle of the field.

She’s the sole female in the Australian Derby and while fillies don’t usually win this race, they also don’t usually contest it and in my eyes, she is the one to beat. The market has it spot on and you can get $2.80 for Aeliana to win the race at PlayUp. While I do think she is the one to beat, she is starting to get a little short for me, after jumping at $3.70.

The 3YO comes into this one third-up and while she has been all class, she is yet to see the winner’s stall. I think she has one of her best chances in this one. I think she should have won the Rosehill Guineas last time out, but had some bad luck finishing second by 0.1L. The rise in trip suits and she has a good record on Soft-rated tracks.

I’m siding with Willydoit as my safe bet for the 2025 Australian Derby. The gelding makes his way from New Zealand after taking out the NZ Derby (Group One) last time out. It was a dominant win as well, with the 3YO winning by 2.3L and it didn’t look like anyone else was going to get close.

Willydoit has a great chance of winning this race and he does present a little more value compared to Aeliana. At the moment, you can pick up Willydoit with odds of $3.80 at Bet365. Kiwi runners also have a decent record in the race and in the last 16 editions, they have won six. Jockey Michael Dee also retains the ride, so there is consistency there as well.

Goldrush Guru’s prep has been well spaced out so far and he has to be considered a top-three chance for sure. The colt is currently paying $11 for the win in the Australian Derby, thanks to Dabble, which puts him on the fourth line of betting. There looks to be a bit of improvement for the colt, so don’t be surprised if he pops in a quality race.

I think he was raced too keenly in the Rosehill Guineas last time out, so look for Jamie Melham to be a little more patient as she retains the ride. He hasn’t clocked in a win this prep, but he doesn’t mind a Soft-rated track, winning once and coming second on another occasion in three total attempts. Could raise a few eyebrows.

Plymouth is another that is coming through the Rosehill Guineas and last time out he finished fourth, 1.5L off the leader Broadsiding. He was a bit unlucky in that one, getting held up multiple times at critical stages. After breaking free, he clocked in the fastest last 200m of the race.

This will be the first time we see the gelding across the 2,400m, so it will be interesting to see how he goes, but he seems to be bred for races like this. Gets a good barrier as well, so that gives him a few options. At the moment, you can pick up Plymouth with odds of $14 for the win with QuestBet.

Let’s have a little stab at Kosuke, why don’t we? The Autumn Sun gelding is going around with massive odds, currently at $151 with Bet Right. This is by far the biggest test he has faced in his career, but at the odds, it’s worth having something very small on him, just in case. I have also blackbooked him so I can follow his future runs.

Seems like he’ll handle the 2,400m quite well and he comes into this one fourth-up. Looking back to his previous prep, he was a winner fourth-up. While that race was certainly no Australian Derby, it’s a step in the right direction. One to include in the wider exotics if you like to play that way.

All my Australian Derby horse racing tips and their odds can be found here:

Bookmaker	Tip	Odds
	Aeliana (win)	$2.80
	Willydoit (each-way)	$3.80/$1.80
	Goldrush Guru (place)	$3.50
	Plymouth (place)	$3.90
	Kosuke (place)	$19